Reading Tea Leaves

As commentators on Palm and the Palm user community do we spend too much time and energy reading too much into things posted on the web?

As an enthusiast and active member of the Palm user community, I can say that I enjoy the thrill of discovery.  I take pleasure in trying to puzzle out what projects Palm is working on to gain insight into where the company is headed.  As part of that pursuit I, and my blogging and podcasting peers, tend to hang on every published word about Palm.  When does the coverage of Palm become too much?

Case in Point

As and example, I would like to point to an article that appeared on the website of UK-based technology website The Guardian titled, “Can Palm find a way to survive?”  Specifically I would like to focus in on the paragraph that many of the fan sites zeroed in on, which reads:

“The bulk of Palm's software development spending is thus now aimed squarely at revamping Palm OS5 to work on a Linux core. But even that may be slipping: though earlier Colligan said that would appear in 2008, Palm this week told the Guardian "it will be 12 to 18 months" before a Linux Palm appears.”

My problem is that the majority of stories on fan sites and discussion threads written last week citing this article may have taken what the article’s author had written out of context.  Throughout the article, the author has quotes from Palm President and CEO Ed Colligan.  In the quoted paragraph above, the author refers to two sources: Mr. Colligan and “Palm”.  The quote from “Palm” is what has bothered me for the better part of the week.  Here is why.

Back in April, at Palm’s Analyst Day, members of Palm’s executive team gave presentations to the media and market analysts about the future direction of the company.  During those sessions, Mr. Colligan announced for the first time that Palm was in fact working on a Linux-based mobile operating system, which I’ve dubbed “Palm OS II”, for use in future devices, specifically the Treo smartphone.  At the time, it was suggested that the first Treo smartphones running Palm OS II would become available for sale by the end of the 2007 calendar year.  During a subsequent quarterly earning conference call, Mr. Colligan stated that the first devices running Palm OS II would not appear until calendar year 2008.  No specifics were given as to why the release date was moved back or when the new operating system would be used in a new Treo smartphone.

Fast forward to the Guardian’s article.  The piece was posted on September 13, the day after the European Treo 500v product announcement event and Palm’s annual shareholder meeting.  (Both the Treo 500v unveiling and the shareholder meeting occurred on the same day.)  Mr. Colligan and his executive team were back at the Palm headquarters in California and therefore not be at the Treo 500v launch event.  If the author wasn’t directly quoting Mr. Colligan with regard to the statement that a new Linux-based operating system could be up to 18 months away, who was the author quoting and would that person be in the loop with regard to management decisions being made several time zones away.  I’m not sure.  I also don’t believe that we, the commentators and fans, have enough information to accurately state Palm’s real timeline for the Palm OS II project.

In Conclusion

When posting articles and comments to blogs, fan sites, and discussion forums, we the commentators and fans, myself included, need to take a step back and look at the larger picture, taking a hard look at the information that has presented.  Palm communicates information to analysts, reporters, fan sites, and the public in a number of different forms, including: company press releases, media events, public conference calls, and even the Palm corporate blog.  It is our responsibility to not jump to conclusions about what is being said, because sometimes what we think we see in the tea leaves just isn’t there.

What are your thoughts on media coverage of Palm?  Do we go too far or is it all fair play?  Let us know in the 1SRC forums.