And Things Yet to Come

This week I have been reading some posts online about how Palm is “losing it” because the company refuses to release devices that fail to meet the “needs” of the vocal minority of Palm enthusiasts who look for ways to push the envelop with their devices.  So I wanted to talk about what to expect, and what not to get your hopes up about.

What Palm Does

Palm is in the business of building mobile computers that make it easier for both business and consumer customers to get their important work done without having technology get in the way.  Each of Palm’s mobile computer lines (PDA handhelds, Mobile Managers, and the Treo smartphones) are all targeted at specific customer profiles.  However, the one thing that Palm always does is to target the mainstream customers in the given market segments.  While Palm is happy to have the enthusiasts like you and I on board, sadly we are not in the majority nor are we the target audience.  Our combined buying power is not enough to drive the development and marketing dollars required to bring an uber-geek Palm mobile computer to market that has a clamshell form factor in a metal case with a voice recorder, Wi-Fi networking, and the latest widgets.  Sorry, it is just not going to happen.  That was Sony’s gig.

What Can We Expect?

In the future, and I’m talking in the next 9 – 12 months, Palm will have their next generation Linux-based operating system ready for prime time.  This new version of the Palm OS, which I’ve taken to calling “Palm OS II” until it is officially announced, will be all the things that Cobalt was suppose to be.  A flexible, multi-tasking, protected memory operating system that will continue to run the majority of today’s Palm OS applications while opening the doors to cool new applications that will drive the next major revolution in mobile computing. 

I also expect that Palm OS II will also feature a more traditional file system than what we are used to in the current versions of Palm OS.  I’m talking about a file system that more closely matches the ones in use on computers today.  Sure, you’ll be able to install applications (.prc files) and databases (.pdb files) into RAM (Tungsten T3 and older) or the storage heap (NVFS devices), but I also fully expect that the new file system will support the installation of new data file types and Linux executable binaries.  The new multi-tasking architecture will mean that you will finally be able to use a web browser to read one page while you are downloading another in the background.  (That is a power user requested feature that should be possible in the new Palm OS if Palm chooses to implement it in Blazer.)

Also expect more Treos.  If the interest in the Treo 700w and p are any indication, the Treo will continue to be Palm’s flagship product line for a long time.  Look for some conservative changes to the Treo family in the next year.  I fully expect the Treo that has rumored to be called Hollywood will be an antennaless GSM 3G wireless Windows Mobile 5 smartphone.  This device will look similar to an anorexic RIM Blackberry to the untrained eye.  I also expect Hollywood to be the next Treo released after the Treo 700p.  The target audience will be the fashion conscience consumer and the business user who wants a smart looking device which will support connections back to the Microsoft Exchange server in the IT data center.

Later this year, we will see the mass market friendly Treo rumored to be the Lowrider released.  This phone will be positioned to lure the masses from their feature flip phones and into the bliss that is the Treo smartphone.  Palm has to get a lot of things right before feature phone toting customers trade up to a phone that has more features, and complexities than their current phones.  Probably the biggest hurdle with the Lowrider is to keep all of the great features that make the Treo a Treo while making those features accessible to customers who don’t want to become computer experts.  In other words, make all of the features of the Treo even easier to use.  Only when average users can pick up a Treo and figure out how to make it work without having to read the manual will mass adoption of smartphones really start to soar.

But What About PDAs?

Traditional handheld users shouldn’t fret.  Palm hasn’t forgotten you.  I completely expect that Palm will release a new handheld or two before this time next year.  Look for and updated Palm TX or Mobile Manager between now and next spring.  The Palm TX comes from a long line of popular tablet PDAs, which provide basic personal management features and enough room to grow into.  For example, Palm has added lots of storage space, expandability options, and third-party accessories to keep customers happy for the life of the device.  A refreshed TX could easily have 4GB of NVFS memory built-in and still have an SDIO slot.

Last year, Palm executives called the LifeDrive and “experiment” in consumer technologies.  It is also the first major handheld to feature a hard disk drive.  Unfortunately, the LifeDrive is plagued by a number of issues that have kept the device from selling as well as it could have.  Some examples include frequent resets, hard drive lag, not enough DB cache space, trouble with Wi-Fi connections, and a lack of a clear description of what the target market is (business users, consumers, media buffs).  I should point out that I’m a happy LifeDrive owner for the record.

In Conclusion

Looking forward there are lots of places that Palm can improve their devices and simplify mobile computing.  I am looking forward to the advances that the next year will bring.  What areas do you think Palm can improve their products?  I’d like to know.