SamuraiCatJB

You'd loose a fortune. They are already dumping 2200 level computers at under $400 to get them off the market. Prices dropping fast on single core 4000 and below because dual core is coming. By next year they will be dumping dual cores for quad cores. PPU cards will be massively improved and graphics will be double both PS3 and Xbox360, without SLI. And rumor has it we may try quad SLI within 18 months. If someone breaks that, graphics are going to jump big!!!

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And now, Grandfather, I ask you to bless the White Man. He needs your Wisdom, your guidance. You see, for so long, he has tried to destroy my people, and only feels comfortable when given power. Bless them, show them the peace we understand, teach them humility. For I fear they will someday destroy themselves and their children, As they have done so Mother Earth. I plead, I cry. After all, They are my Brothers.... ~ Prayer ~

zackepceo

I think with this generation of consoles we could see realtime rendering approaching that of cinema studio quality. With the next generation, the physics will be replecated to real life and the interaction with the player will be enhanced. Graphical quality far beyond that found in present-day computer animation is most likely not feasable because of the level of detail required in the models and textures.

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"No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism."

Karim

You're a real dreamer. I'd have to see it to believe it (within your short timeframe).

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neogin

this guy .. karim .. always against us like crazy .. he doesn't know how to listen people sometime ..

at $400 plus tax .. u can find a dell computer with that spec online .. i always see coupons from dell .. so often .. i don't know why you keep saying .. $2500 worth of computer .. from the xbox and ps3 .. they don't worth for a $2500 computer ..

what samcat and jackaxe said .. i'm totally agree with them .. enough reasons and proof ..

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What can I?

SamuraiCatJB

Neogin, it's okay. People are allowed to have their opinion. It is very easy to get excited when you first hear the specs. Three cores, 2 hardware threads per core, 6 hardware threads total. That means 3 hyperthread processors at 3.2ghz, so six 1.6ghz threaded systems, 1 teraflop. Sounds impressive. But it won't be here until November, six months from now. So 18 months from xbox 360 release is two years, 24 months from xbox 360 release is 30 months, almost two computer cycles of 18 months each. We're already pulling the equivalent Intel performance of 4ghz+. So each individual processor is a step down from current performance. That is because consoles have to provide stable reliable capability, they can never be state of the art, they have to be proveable.

In six months the PC architecture will have the same graphics capability, dual core 4ghz, plus the Physics processing chip. For just over $1k. Yes the two specs compare with gain on the console. That is where time comes in. 18months out from this winter we'll probably hit quad core, dual core PPU, dual core GPU, 2 teraflops. But again that will be at the $1k plus mark, previous gen architectures will be pushed down under $400 to make way for the next generation.

It is no different than the sprintime sales going on in town right now for automobiles. They know the 2006 announcements will come this summer. They know they need to move products now, because there will be less profit moving them at fall with the 2006 coming in. Once the 2006 models come in they have to move all the inventory to make room for it, they sell at cost, or if they are lucky just above cost. The same thing happens with PCs, the cycle is just a bit longer.

We are still a month plus out from the next gen CPUs, prices are dropping fast, manufacturers are trying to move inventory before they have to near at cost. It is the salesman's and advertising marketers job to get you so excited you think that this will last forever.

__________________
And now, Grandfather, I ask you to bless the White Man. He needs your Wisdom, your guidance. You see, for so long, he has tried to destroy my people, and only feels comfortable when given power. Bless them, show them the peace we understand, teach them humility. For I fear they will someday destroy themselves and their children, As they have done so Mother Earth. I plead, I cry. After all, They are my Brothers.... ~ Prayer ~

zackepceo

Reliable sources tell me that the 990 (Quarter 2 2007) may be made with carbon nanotube transistors or at least with nanotube wires. That would represent an incredible leap in not only computational power, but in the ability for computers to be anywhere. A 10 teraflop core that fits on the head of a needle and dissipates next to no heat (not to mention having extremely low power requirements) would bring the other players in the semiconductor market to their knees.

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"No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism."

SamuraiCatJB

True, and we have had advancements in holographic memory 1 terabyte in a sugar cube. I was trying to show that even if these do not come about, existing technology trends can continue. New technology like carbon nanotubes and holographic memory, and other things are hard to predict. When they occur there is always an exponential jump in capability.

__________________
And now, Grandfather, I ask you to bless the White Man. He needs your Wisdom, your guidance. You see, for so long, he has tried to destroy my people, and only feels comfortable when given power. Bless them, show them the peace we understand, teach them humility. For I fear they will someday destroy themselves and their children, As they have done so Mother Earth. I plead, I cry. After all, They are my Brothers.... ~ Prayer ~

Karim

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SamuraiCatJB

Processor/Display
Intel® Pentium® 4 Processor (2.80GHz, 533 FSB)


for 400, is not THAT old... that is two years, 24 months... That happens to coincide with my math. So yes, you just proved my point, thank you.

__________________
And now, Grandfather, I ask you to bless the White Man. He needs your Wisdom, your guidance. You see, for so long, he has tried to destroy my people, and only feels comfortable when given power. Bless them, show them the peace we understand, teach them humility. For I fear they will someday destroy themselves and their children, As they have done so Mother Earth. I plead, I cry. After all, They are my Brothers.... ~ Prayer ~

SamuraiCatJB

In 6 months, that will be dual core 2400 for same price, just in time for the Xbox 360, you'll be able to pick up faster graphics and faster processing on the PC, but at a price, as you said. But 18 months after 360 release, that will be dualcore 3400-3800, with a PPU, and similar graphics, faster than the Xbox 360, similar price. And higher end PCs will be much, much faster and capable of much more extensive and impressive game/software.

Because PCs make up the bulk of the R&D for consoles, you cannot have one without the other. Mass production of consoles brings down the cost faster on PCs during the 18month of its expected lifetime per generation. At the same time pushing the R&D onto PC production means consoles can cost less. Banking on that 18month CPU cycle and improvements in production along the way, they can afford to sell at a loss up front, make profits from games, and production units later.

Without the PC market, with consoles taking up the bulk of the R&D for itself, the X-Box 360 would have to market at about $800+. The console market has no intention of killing the PC, which is why at you will see a flood of new technology at the same time as the 360 release. You can pick up the same or faster graphics, a physics processor, and massive dual cores to outdistance the 360. Again, at a price, but that is why the console is cheap. Better performance on the PC, higher price, make up the R&D costs for the cheaper console. Kill the PC, you kill the console since few would pay $800+ for a game-only computer.

__________________
And now, Grandfather, I ask you to bless the White Man. He needs your Wisdom, your guidance. You see, for so long, he has tried to destroy my people, and only feels comfortable when given power. Bless them, show them the peace we understand, teach them humility. For I fear they will someday destroy themselves and their children, As they have done so Mother Earth. I plead, I cry. After all, They are my Brothers.... ~ Prayer ~

JackAxe

Why are we even arguing about this, let Karim buy a game machine for his daily "computer" needs. I'm sure once he walks into GameCrazy, or another similar store and trys to find Office or a DVD authoring app for his brand new PS3, he'll relize that his only choice is games.

If Dell or other OEM manufactures made money off the software and not the hardware, then you would be able to buy cheaper PCs from the get go. But this is not the case, OEM manufactures make money off the hardware and need to "pay" a licensing fee to software companies like Microsoft.

Like has already been stated; GAME machines make all of their money off GAMES. So they can sell their hardware at a loss. This makes them a better value for games, but that's it!

<]=)

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I be a hearty pirate that plunders many waffles.

The Dread Pirate Monkey Gizmo has scurvy! :)

Nintendo DS and Wii, me gaming machines of choice.

SamuraiCatJB

yeah, I was going to let it lie until Karim said that the 360 would last 5-6 years. That kind of poor advice hurts everyone that believes it. I will be quiet too. Pity we can't preserve this thread and laugh at my predictions in 30 months. they are probably way too conservative. we may be so far beyond that that. It is so difficult predicting the future.

just think... someday we will be like the guys who worked on vaccuum tube computers, people looking back from nanotubes will wonder how we managed.

__________________
And now, Grandfather, I ask you to bless the White Man. He needs your Wisdom, your guidance. You see, for so long, he has tried to destroy my people, and only feels comfortable when given power. Bless them, show them the peace we understand, teach them humility. For I fear they will someday destroy themselves and their children, As they have done so Mother Earth. I plead, I cry. After all, They are my Brothers.... ~ Prayer ~

neogin

oh .. i got my desktop p4 2.4 ghz like .. 3-4 yrs ago .. i got it about $600 with dell 15 inch LCD too .. with geforce4 at that time .. normal price of this pc + LCD .. it would be 1000 something but .. it wouldn't be $2500 -,-'' and it was kinda .. top at that time ..

in that case .. to get a computer to use in a long run like u said .. u gotta know when to buy .. i bought it when it was kinda peak time of cpu tech ..

i think that the idea of .. the 360 would last 5-6 years .. i don't think so .. the 3.2 ghz is kinda .. too old for now .. it was released a year or 2 yrs already ?? should be ..

__________________
What can I?

SamuraiCatJB

That's a fun subject I get asked a LOT. When should someone buy computer equipment. My usual response is "when you need it". Though if you have the time to wait, watch the market and choose, I ask a different question: "top of the line, or end of the line". 754 based AMDs are going dirt cheap because they are ending that line for top of the line chips, and extending them through Sempron line. If you don't mind catching 6 to 12 month old technology, and live without support, you can get decent computer chips mega-dirt-cheap when the line ends and they are dumping the market with remaining stock. They usually are moving R&D overhead on chips to the newer models, so you are closer to the production cost of the chip. There is still markup to cover all the other parts of production and handling, but you have much less markup on end-line production chips.

I have been moving "upward" towards the front of technology at home, but I still deliberately choose some of these lines because I know they are ending and are cheaper. The 939 chips were already out when I got my 754 AMD64, the price had just dropped on the 754 line, not super low, but no longer highest end pricing.

When you buy, and what you buy makes all the difference in pricing.

__________________
And now, Grandfather, I ask you to bless the White Man. He needs your Wisdom, your guidance. You see, for so long, he has tried to destroy my people, and only feels comfortable when given power. Bless them, show them the peace we understand, teach them humility. For I fear they will someday destroy themselves and their children, As they have done so Mother Earth. I plead, I cry. After all, They are my Brothers.... ~ Prayer ~