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10-20-2003, 10:23 PM
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#1 | | Intrepid Spaceman Spiff
Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Mars
Posts: 129
 | Interesting Article
The Economist has an interesting article titled "PDA, RIP" Quote:
IS IT time to declare the demise of the handheld computer, also known as the personal digital assistant (PDA)? A lot of people suddenly think so, for despite high hopes that the devices—made by such firms as Palm, Sony, HP and Dell—would someday become ubiquitous, annual sales have stayed flat at around 11m units worldwide. This compares poorly with PCs, around 130m of which are sold every year, and mobile phones, with sales of around 460m units. “The PDA market will never be a mass market,” says Cindy Wolf, an analyst at In-Stat/MDR, a market-research firm. Almost everyone who wants a PDA, she says, now has one.
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what do you all think?
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10-20-2003, 10:35 PM
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#2 | | Hmmm...Zenta
Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: There I be!
Posts: 5,546
| I subscribe to the economist and agree with what they have said for the most part. The larger market will be the hybrid devices leaving the PDA to a smaller crowd. I've been of this mindset for more than 2 years and still see that as the most likely senario to this day. | |
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10-20-2003, 10:44 PM
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#3 | | A Qduck goes Quark Quark.
Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Reno
Posts: 237
| Have to agree. There is no way in the world my wife would ever use a PDA. I could buy her one and get it all set up, and she would leave it in a drawer.
Those who do use one, already have one. The key is getting us to upgrade more often. That is a bad thing on our end.
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10-21-2003, 12:41 AM
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#4 | | My superhero? Till-man!!
Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Sun Devil Stadium
Posts: 342
| I guess this would explain the movement toward the "jack of all trades, master of none" PDAs that are starting to pop up. The market has not significantly grown because most people have no idea what a Palm or a Clie is, much less what it can do.
Ask your average parents what a PDA is, and watch their expressions. These are the same people that will spend $200 on a graphic calculator, but think that a palm is just a toy.
If PDAs were marketed better, they would sell better.
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10-21-2003, 02:52 AM
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#5 | | X-MAS came early, YEAH!!
Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Brentwood
Posts: 132
| Quote: Originally posted by kjbad
I guess this would explain the movement toward the "jack of all trades, master of none"...If PDAs were marketed better, they would sell better. |
I couldn't agree more. Look at the T-mobile ads. "Camera phone" is one thing, but we know we have that and more. The appeal is a camera in your pocket, I think, not neccessarily the connection to the phone. If they built a "camera lipstick" they'd sell a billion! 
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10-21-2003, 04:23 AM
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#6 | | Go Spartan !!!
Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Somewhere warm
Posts: 752
| I don't agree with the article. PDA was for tech savvy or perceive as tech savvy and hence people in their mid 40's and above is a bit apprehension. That age group thought PDA is PIM and nothing else...They see no value in PDA at all. As a matter of fact, I am the only person in my company that uses PDA extensively (as busienss and communication tool) and the senior management in my company are not that old (average is 40's). They carry their laptop whenever they are travelling. The company issued them Palm PDA but they just use it to store address!!! However, I start to see the junior staff using the PDA extensively, adding other softwares to enhance the communication and business tool aspect. As the CEO of the company, I had preached to my colleague to use the PDA (specially the UX50) to improve their productivity (we also issued them SE T610) when they are not in their office. When I showed them how I use it (verichat, email, photo snapping of competitor products and email it, appointment that trace biz deal, project software, piscel view, conversion, voice recording, netfront, Quick Office suite, and FunSMS as biz tool, MP3, Movie to go, and Bible for You as leisure), they go Wow but that's it. They thought their boss is gadget freak..At times, I was mad at my colleague that he input the appointment (during the meeting) in his filofax and then input it again in his palm !!!! But the younger staff is different. They know the value of PDA not just for PIM or gadget and I think this age group (born after late 60's) are the potential buyers...As UX50 demostrated, the potential of PDA has begin to explode. I rely on UX50 to go on short trip and leave my G4 in the office.
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I want the UX75 !!!!
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10-21-2003, 07:13 AM
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#7 | | Registered User Silver Contributor
Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: USA
Posts: 224
| I think there are three issues holding back mass adoption of smart devices like PDAs:
- It still is not easy enough to get data _into_ a PDA. Grafitti (I, II, whatever), Decuma, Jot, etc. are just different enough from normal handwriting to make it another skill to be adopted. Keyboards like the built-in Palm kb, Fitaly, etc., are also more of a triumph of skill than data-entry. Voice input is nowhere. I'm convinced most people don't want to do anything different than they do now. In this respect, PDAs fail.
- I don't think the PDA is dead so much as it will morph into something else. My low-end Samsung mobile phone has a scheduler, to-do list, address book, and notepad. I _could_ use it as my PDA, but I don't because I get so much more out of (and into!) my Clie. And even if I did abandon my Clie in favor of my Samsung, if I ever buy a Nokia phone, or an LG, or even a SE, I have a whole new interface to learn and another way to sync the data with its original source (typically with a hugely-overpriced cable specific to that particular phone model). People churn through phone brands very quickly, and I don't think very many of them have a taste for mastering one phone PIM after another. Standardization would help a lot here, but then we'd all be arguing over whose OS we'd use <grin>.
- Finally, I don't think the companies selling PDAs have come up with a compelling reason for them to stay alive. _We_ all know the reasons, but I think the business has failed to sell the "killer app" that will make people realize what they're getting in a PDA besides a one-way transfer of their address book or calendar. I would like to see the results of companies selling vertical applications like real estate (use a PDA-based form to fill out details of the house/lot being sold, take a picture with the PDA-based camera, transfer it all to the main system at work); health care (illustrate doctors, nurses, and paramedics who use PDAs as reference guides and note-taking devices and even for communication purposes via Bluetooth or Wi-Fi); etc. PC sales didn't take off until people realized buying VisiCalc or WordStar let them be far more productive. The software was the reason for buying the hardware. PDA manufacturers seem to have gotten it the other way around, continually pushing hardware capable of far more than most customers demand of it. | |
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10-21-2003, 07:28 AM
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#8 | | Currently using TX
Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Russia --> United States
Posts: 665
| I DO agree we will see a continued evolution of PDAs in to cell phone/something else combos and that will win the general market.
However, I don't agree that PDAs have not made a dent in the market's awareness of what they are and what they do
Almost everyone knows what a PDA is now. 3-4 years ago not that many people did. Colleges are giving away Clies for free in some places. (NOT included in tuition). I see more and more people with PDAs everyday. And I see more and more low-entry color devices. Clies are popping up everywhere in the last few months! (not high-end versions but something like a T or a SJ)
It's not really geeky to be seen using a PDA (at least, I don't feel that way). And many people don't ask questions anymore like "Oh, what's that?" In fact, many people have expectations that are possibly excessive like" Are you on the internet? when they see me checking something on my Palm
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waiting for the second generation of iPhone/iPod Touch...
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10-21-2003, 07:45 AM
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#9 | | Guest | It also has a lot to do with the cognitive process of knowledge work. An interesting study and book was published a couple of years ago - The Myth of the Paperless Office. http://www.hpl.hp.com/news/2001/oct-dec/papermyth.html
Blaming the lack of widespread embracement on age, gender, education, etc, is a quick fix explanation with little thought behind it. | |
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10-21-2003, 08:15 AM
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#10 | | This floor is too slow!
Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: MD
Posts: 134
| I didn't carry a PDA for the longest time because my Daytimer phone list and random scraps of paper suited me just fine. Why would I want to mess with something that ate batteries, didn't display enough information, and couldn't do a whole heck of a lot? I even tried the Palm VIIx (got it new and boxed, but old and cheap, if you follow me) but found it to be useless. More trouble than it was worth, and more expensive. With the advent of high resolution color screens, built-in keyboards, wireless communications (that should do mothing but improve), and multimedia capabilities, they're getting to the point where they're actually useful.
Frankly, I don't use mine for scheduling, I just can't see enough data at one time to make it useful- but then I've never been a big scheduler. It is, however, great for taking written notes, voice notes, studying videos, and carrying small documents- shoot, sometimes even big ones. Some of the mapping, database, and astronomy programs are the coolest. You couldn't do that with the original PDAs. Makiung them rechargable removes the biggest ongoing cost to using them. When I get the next version with a decent camera, you won't be able to pry the thing out of my hands.
There are a lot of different uses people can put these babies to and we're just starting to find them. Let the battery life get longer and/or the computing power get greater, let it be easier to develop software for them so companies can do more remote apps and integration, let the manufacturers explore more different form factors, methods of input, and types of connection, and there will continue to be more users.
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10-21-2003, 09:33 AM
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#11 | | Hmmm...Zenta
Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: There I be!
Posts: 5,546
| Quote: Originally posted by sindu
I don't agree with the article. PDA was for tech savvy or perceive as tech savvy and hence people in their mid 40's and above is a bit apprehension. That age group thought PDA is PIM and nothing else...They see no value in PDA at all. As a matter of fact, I am the only person in my company that uses PDA extensively (as busienss and communication tool) and the senior management in my company are not that old (average is 40's). They carry their laptop whenever they are travelling. The company issued them Palm PDA but they just use it to store address!!! However, I start to see the junior staff using the PDA extensively, adding other softwares to enhance the communication and business tool aspect. As the CEO of the company, I had preached to my colleague to use the PDA (specially the UX50) to improve their productivity (we also issued them SE T610) when they are not in their office. When I showed them how I use it (verichat, email, photo snapping of competitor products and email it, appointment that trace biz deal, project software, piscel view, conversion, voice recording, netfront, Quick Office suite, and FunSMS as biz tool, MP3, Movie to go, and Bible for You as leisure), they go Wow but that's it. They thought their boss is gadget freak..At times, I was mad at my colleague that he input the appointment (during the meeting) in his filofax and then input it again in his palm !!!! But the younger staff is different. They know the value of PDA not just for PIM or gadget and I think this age group (born after late 60's) are the potential buyers...As UX50 demostrated, the potential of PDA has begin to explode. I rely on UX50 to go on short trip and leave my G4 in the office. |
I don't see disagreement with the article here. If they were given the option of both a smart phone and a pda and overwhelmingly chose the pda then I could see your point of disagreement more clearly. | |
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10-21-2003, 10:12 AM
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#12 | | Hmmm...Zenta
Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: There I be!
Posts: 5,546
| Much of what I'm hearing is PDA vs. no PDA and not about PDA vs. Smart Phone. A smart phone is a phone/pda combo like the Treo 600 or that nice Samsung OS5. You actually would have to argue that people want separate phones and pdas vs. an "all in one" combo. I think there is growth in both markets, but the SmartPhone has the greatest potential.
Last edited by Tixx : 10-21-2003 at 10:22 AM.
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10-21-2003, 11:26 AM
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#13 | | Go Spartan !!!
Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Somewhere warm
Posts: 752
| The way I look at the article, it mentioned the demise of PDA in comparison to PC and mobile phone. Well on the other hand, I consider smart phone such as the new Treo 600 as PDA cum phone. What i am trying to point out is that as the technology of PDA both software and hardware are improving and the fact that younger generation are more expose to technology early (more tech savvy), the usefulness of PDA is on the verge to exlode and will one day took over PC. A case in point. 5 years ago, we only issued desktop PC to our staff but now as notebook capability vastly improve, broadband is readily available at home, staff are more mobile and doing multi-tasking role, we only issue notebook. Maybe next few years, we would issue only PDA to certain departments staffs | |
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10-21-2003, 11:33 AM
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#14 | | Hmmm...Zenta
Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: There I be!
Posts: 5,546
| Quote: Originally posted by sindu
The way I look at the article, it mentioned the demise of PDA in comparison to PC and mobile phone. Well on the other hand, I consider smart phone such as the new Treo 600 as PDA cum phone. What i am trying to point out is that as the technology of PDA both software and hardware are improving and the fact that younger generation are more expose to technology early (more tech savvy), the usefulness of PDA is on the verge to exlode and will one day took over PC. A case in point. 5 years ago, we only issued desktop PC to our staff but now as notebook capability vastly improve, broadband is readily available at home, staff are more mobile and doing multi-tasking role, we only issue notebook. Maybe next few years, we would issue only PDA to certain departments staffs |
Ok, from that perspective I see your point. Gottcha  | |
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10-21-2003, 03:16 PM
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#15 | | Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NYC
Posts: 182
| I agree with kjbad's point regarding marketing. How many print/TV ads do you see in the mainstream media? While we read the Economist, you won't see an article like "Is A PDA Right For You?" in Family Circle magazine.
I also agree that it's the software that will woo the consumer. The gearheads like us will drool for the latest and greatest, but Norman and Nancy Normal will yawn unless there is some app that will directly and dramatically enhance their experience.
The older consumer became more interested in PCs when they went down in price, became de rigeur in most schools, got smaller than the family car, and Aunt Mary started sending the annual Xmas letter (with pix) via email.
But try and pry some of them away from AOL - no way. It's comfortable, it's familiar, it's widely used & recognized, and you can't spin around without bumping into a free disk touting a gazillion complimentary hours.
GEnie, CompuServe, even GUI-based Prodigy either morphed, died or was subsumed by what started out as the dead-last and probably inferior service. We tech-heads were typing esoteric Unix commands that the general public would flee screaming from.
Digital cameras got hot, because they were viewed as an extension of an already familiar and common activity. Pagers once only graced the doctor's pocket. Now, spouses beep each other to pick up milk on the way home.
The majority of people don't want to be decked out like Batman, so the idea of PDA/phone/pager/camera convergence may be more appealing to them. (not to me, though.)
In addition, although I use a PC, the entire Mac segment of the computing population has been virtually ignored by PDA manufacturers. I understand that vis-a-vis Microsoft, but what about the Palm platform? Apple clearly states it has no plans in this area after the Newton. It's a small segment of the market, sure. But Woolworth got rich on nickels and dimes.
Also, the oddest things can trigger interest in technology. After 9/11, dozens of my clients started asking me about Blackberries - what they were, how they worked, were they easy to use, how much, etc. Why? Because so many people in the Towers communicated with the outside via Blackberry when the cell phone lines overloaded.
My sister-in-law is a total techno-phobe. In fact, things crash when she walks into the room. However, as soon as my niece and nephew were old enough to be out after dark, she outfitted them with cell phones. That secure feeling was enough to overcome her distaste for all things tech. Even so, if the learning curve had been too steep, she would have tied tin cans to them instead.
So, yeah, it's likely that the PDA as we know it will change into some all-purpose electronic appliance that is cheap, easy to use, and nearly universal.
I still think, though, that full-featured PDAs like the UX50 could gain in popularity with the younger tech-savvy, the tele-commuter, the travel-light business people, medical & legal professionals, and the ebay addicts.
The keys will be proper marketing strategy, and underlying clean robust, software. NetFront and ClieMail will not cut the mustard here.
My long-winded $.02...
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