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Jeff Kirvin
07-06-2005, 06:49 PM
Vidcast tutorial, new Backup program on the block (NVFS block, that is), a new Palm OS licensee, the death of PalmSource as we knew it and why it doesn't matter, and an update on my Treo lust. [details (http://www.1src.com/?m=show&id=1131)]

jjesusfreak01
07-06-2005, 07:13 PM
Jeff, this is the kind of podcast that will make people kill themselves. IIRC, he said that ALL development efforts are shifting to Linux. IMHO, this means that development of OS5 is done as of NOW.

Podcast sucking brains out...

Alan G
07-06-2005, 08:13 PM
You know, I was just outlining my notes for Tech Talk 17, maybe I won't want to talk about PalmSource and LG after I listen to 1SRC #31. But anyway, I always find Jeff's podcasts thought provoking...I'm either saying "right on!" or "Kirvin's off his flippin' rocker again!" Needless to say, I'm a bit concerned with the fate of Palm OS once PalmSource no longer can use the name "Palm", and if anyone will really care what PalmSource is doing three years from now. In handheld terms, three years is a long time out.

Alan G

LupeValenz
07-06-2005, 09:00 PM
*stares at Jeff, then goes grab his treo, place it in the hard casing, comes back and http://images3.deviantart.com/i/2004/168/c/8/_smack_.gif Jeff with it* Get a Treo, if this is able to make me THINK about replacing my THea (and everyone knows TH is a GREAT PDA) then the Treo can easily replace the T5 :D It is the lil touches that makes me want it, like you said, automatic numbering in nmber fields, lil halo to navigate, great one handed experience, EXCELLENT battery life, VERY bright screen (to bright, I have to set it down to 30%, and that is brighter than my TH at 50%. The more you use it, the more you want it :) (Lil hint, be on the lookout for a possible ad bout a Sony PDA ;))

Gekko
07-06-2005, 09:17 PM
With the death of PalmSource comes the eventual death of PalmOS - and ultimately the death of Palm. And sooner rather than later, Garnet will not be a serviceable OS for Palm(One) and they will have to switch to some other OS - most likely Windows Mobile. You can only cobble and hack together a FrankenGarnet to a certain point. As Palm(One) will try to keep up with the features of other competitor Smartphones, they will need a real OS. By the time PLinux comes (if ever), Windows will have a virtual monopoly on the Mobile market as well. 1-2 years is a LIFETIME in the technology world. What does this all mean? Well - What will Palm(One) really have to offer that's unique/better 2 years from now when they are forced to use Windows Mobile like most other Smart Phones? The reason people buy Treos NOW is because of PalmOS. In two years, when Palm(One) is using Windows Mobile (or derivative) they will simply be another commodity WM handset maker WITHOUT the economies of scale.

What will Palm(One) bring to the table in 2008 over any other commodity handset maker???

p.s. you should have played this as your intro -

http://www.content.loudeye.com/scripts/hurl.exe?clipid=003234102080006900&cid=600111

Dick Tracy
07-06-2005, 09:19 PM
PalmSource has taken the next step toward becoming CMS (USA), Inc. I don't anticipate seeing many of the new (and future) licensees' handsets in North America unless they are privately branded or the new OS and UI is entirely modular for carrier convenience.

Where does this leave Palm? Unless they are secretly developing a new OS (which explains their response to broken Find on the E2 was "intentional" and why developers I have contacted re NVFS issues have been unable to resolve, claiming Palm problem-lack info from them) or have killer product forthcoming in the LifeDrive line, basic handhelds are in line to become like calculators (or, if I'm wrong, like the disposable cellphone). Given the Zire 21 is now $60, I think the writing is on the wall. I'm sad; does everything have to be a phone?

Don't get too excited about the Treo 650. It has broken calculator too.

There must be something Palm is quietly working on... Could it have anything to do with the folding screen they recently patented?

strider_mt2k
07-06-2005, 10:35 PM
Life is change, as they say.

Aww man, I was sharpening my harpoon too. :(
Better things will come, but I'm sure we'll look back on this time with fondness.

The Treo 650 is the front runner as a potenetial replacement for my TH55 right now, but let's see what's coming up.

Here's to the undiscovered country.

Jeff Kirvin
07-06-2005, 10:40 PM
Aww man, I was sharpening my harpoon too. :(

LOL! I'd forgotten about the whaling comment.

Better things will come, but I'm sure we'll look back on this time with fondness.

The Treo 650 is the front runner as a potenetial replacement for my TH55 right now, but let's see what's coming up.

Here's to the undiscovered country.

Precisely. I still love my T5, we'll see if I can wrangle an A940. Otherwise, I like the Treo 650 and can see pairing it with a larger tablet-form handheld (a Dell X50v? scandal!) until the Longhorn minitablets come out in late '07.

Jeff Kirvin
07-06-2005, 10:43 PM
Jeff, this is the kind of podcast that will make people kill themselves. IIRC, he said that ALL development efforts are shifting to Linux. IMHO, this means that development of OS5 is done as of NOW.

Actually, no. It means PalmSource is no longer doing any Garnet development. Palm is still doing a lot of it.

Might we see Palm permanently purchase the rights to Garnet exclusively and rename it Palm OS after the name change takes effect? Then the circle would be complete.

Jeff Kirvin
07-06-2005, 10:45 PM
You know, I was just outlining my notes for Tech Talk 17, maybe I won't want to talk about PalmSource and LG after I listen to 1SRC #31. But anyway, I always find Jeff's podcasts thought provoking...I'm either saying "right on!" or "Kirvin's off his flippin' rocker again!" Needless to say, I'm a bit concerned with the fate of Palm OS once PalmSource no longer can use the name "Palm", and if anyone will really care what PalmSource is doing three years from now. In handheld terms, three years is a long time out.

PalmSource is dead. They're just another Linux ISV now, not unlike Redhat or Mandrake. The only difference is that they specialize in an embedded distro.

Palm is increasingly Palm again, and we might be seeing a rebirth of the Palm Inc we once knew, before the Dark Times. Before Benhamou...

Jeff Kirvin
07-06-2005, 10:47 PM
I'm sad; does everything have to be a phone?

Don't get too excited about the Treo 650. It has broken calculator too.

Because eventually it'll be so cheap to put GSM in the device that it makes no sense to leave it out, even if it's only used for WAN data.

Broken calculator?

smoothjordan
07-06-2005, 11:50 PM
Sprint is the best carrier to get for PDA phones. Vision is 10 bucks and it's unlimited net :) :) Go Treo !!!! The a940 is going to be priced similar to that of the treo, so it all depends on what you want... An expensive phone that's not a pda, or a treo. Personally, I wouldn't get that phone until its prices are down.

JAmerican
07-06-2005, 11:55 PM
My co-worker has a Treo 650 as well and has TCPMP, PTunes, and other cool apps on it. I'm really jealous due to her battery doesn't suck. She asked me why my screen backlight was so low. I told here it was due to the battery. I'm considering the next version of a Treo if one is released.

I take the MetroNorth to visit friends out of the city and its amazing how many people have it. I see about 3, a day. Some people have it mounted to their laptops for internet service, others just using it as a phone.

JAmerican

JAmerican
07-06-2005, 11:57 PM
Here's a pic of the Samsung A940...

http://www.slashphone.com/news/uploads/2036/v5100.jpg

JAmerican

JAmerican
07-07-2005, 12:20 AM
If you go to CNET.com, their weekend project is migrating from Palm to PocketPC.

http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-10163_7-6250542-7.html?tag=viddet

JAmerican

smoothjordan
07-07-2005, 12:59 AM
Ha ha, i'm not jumping the boat that quick, even though the Samsung i730 is freaking awesome!! (I work at circuit city, so I get to play with all the verizon phones. The verizon guy and i are good buddies :) )

Alan G
07-07-2005, 06:44 AM
Broken calculator?

Since Dick Tracy found it, I'll let him fill you in. I really really hope that Colligan can get control of Palm and clean up this mess. Being able to search and add are key features for handhelds and smartphones.

Alan G

quasar
07-07-2005, 07:53 AM
Interesting revelations. I, too, will keep my Zodiac until I need to upgrade, because it still works. When you say people will be using Linux-based things, do you mean ala PepperPad, or something else? And will you still make Palm OS podcasts when you dispose of Palm OS devices? Also, do you think the Palm OS will be that drastically changed by palmsource? My understanding was that they were going to try to get Palm OS look and feel and applications on Linux for greater developer friendliness and stability.

Surur
07-07-2005, 10:22 AM
A lightweight mobile OS such as windows mobile will never fade away. No cell-phone will ever run on Longhorn, and running desktop computer software on a handheld is a red herring, mainly due to the inappropriate user interface. The added licensing costs will also make it cost-prohibitive. By the time you trim down longhorn that it will run well on a handheld device you may as well call it windows mobile also. In a way its all splitting hairs.

I expect WM will still be around by 2010. I fully expect not to have a Palm OS around anymore however.

Surur

smoothjordan
07-07-2005, 10:59 AM
This saddens me Surur.... I love the palm OS, i've used it for 3 years now... Don't leave me!!! :(

Jeff Kirvin
07-07-2005, 11:06 AM
Since Dick Tracy found it, I'll let him fill you in. I really really hope that Colligan can get control of Palm and clean up this mess. Being able to search and add are key features for handhelds and smartphones.

I've touched on this in the Brighthand thread. The calculator isn't broken at all. He just forgot to hit the Equals key.

Jeff Kirvin
07-07-2005, 11:07 AM
Interesting revelations. I, too, will keep my Zodiac until I need to upgrade, because it still works. When you say people will be using Linux-based things, do you mean ala PepperPad, or something else? And will you still make Palm OS podcasts when you dispose of Palm OS devices? Also, do you think the Palm OS will be that drastically changed by palmsource? My understanding was that they were going to try to get Palm OS look and feel and applications on Linux for greater developer friendliness and stability.

Yeah, a lot of these new tablets will be similar to the PepperPad.

I'm not planning on disposing of Palm OS devices entirely. It will still power my phone, I'm sure.

Jeff Kirvin
07-07-2005, 11:10 AM
A lightweight mobile OS such as windows mobile will never fade away. No cell-phone will ever run on Longhorn, and running desktop computer software on a handheld is a red herring, mainly due to the inappropriate user interface. The added licensing costs will also make it cost-prohibitive. By the time you trim down longhorn that it will run well on a handheld device you may as well call it windows mobile also. In a way its all splitting hairs.

I expect WM will still be around by 2010. I fully expect not to have a Palm OS around anymore however.

Surur

I also expect WM to be around by 2010. But it won't run slate-factor handheld computers like it does now. It will be a phone OS. Handheld computers as we know them will run Longhorn by then, and if you think Longhorn won't scale gracefully to a steno-pad sized device, you need to learn more about Longhorn. Many of the key differences between Longhorn and XP have to do with mobility.

JAmerican
07-07-2005, 11:10 AM
I hope the Treo 800 on Treonauts.com is what the newest Treo looks like.

JAmerican

GadgetGuru
07-07-2005, 12:22 PM
I don't think Michael Mace has left Palmsource. David Nagel, the CEO, has left but not COO Mr. Mace.

Surur
07-07-2005, 01:53 PM
... if you think Longhorn won't scale gracefully to a steno-pad sized device, you need to learn more about Longhorn. Many of the key differences between Longhorn and XP have to do with mobility.

Jeff, is that a slate tablet with batteries on a little trolley?

Longhorn hardware recommendations

Here are Microsoft's Longhorn hardware recommendations:

Desktop CPU: 3 GHz Intel Pentium 4 processor with HyperThreading Technology 530 (or higher) or 3 GHz Intel Xeon processor with 2 MB L2 cache, or AMD Athlon 64, Sempron, or Opteron 100, 200, or 800 processor, single or dual-core versions.

Mobile CPU: 1.86 GHz Intel Pentium M processor 750 (or higher), or AMD Turion 64 Mobile Technology, Mobile Sempron, or Mobile Athlon 64 processor.

RAM: 512 MB of RAM or more, all platforms.

http://www.pro-networks.org/forum/about50404.html

http://arstechnica.com/news/posts/1083874709.html

http://www.winfx247.com/247reference/msgs/0/1239.aspx

I don't know who has been telling you about Longhorn (you have mentioned these tablets many times) but I suggest you do a bit more reading. You will probably say in 2 years time batteries will be better, processors more powerful and use less power and electronics cheaper. Batteries however barely improve by 15%/year. A large HDD takes a lot of power (as LifeDrive owners are learning (and thats a small HDD)) A good graphics processor also uses a lot of energy (which is why the latest ones have fans to dissipate heat). Processor advancement is tailing off, and the trend now is toward multiple processors.

In short then, there will not be a small A5 size tablet that can run for 5-8 hours continuously (unless its weighs a ton and is very thick due to all the batteries). The OQO will remain a niche, due to the reduced functionality inherent in a smaller screen. This will keep it expensive. You will continue needing software specially written for the mobile and small screen.

My next PDA will be the MDA IV / HTC Universal. It doesnt look much like a phone at all, and hasnt even got an external screen. Just because your PDA can take a SIM card does not make it a phone. Mobility and pocketability is still important. Small handhelds still have a large future.
http://img.eprice.com.tw/img/news/2913/06.jpg

I'm really amazed that some-one who appreciates the simplicity of the Palm UI can feel that a desktop UI can be appropriate for a small handheld device. Of is it just that you feel its inevitable?

Surur

smoothjordan
07-07-2005, 01:59 PM
What I think will happen, as has been stated before, Laptops and PDA's will evolve into a hybrid of the two, something similar to a tablet pc. As soon as we get foldable screens, were going to be having pocket laptops!!! :) :)

Cyker
07-07-2005, 02:40 PM
Surur: Inevitability.

Look at how PC's and Macs have evolved - They started off as simple limited function systems and are now huge bloated and insanely complex.

Palms got the way they are because the target audience was mostly techs and professionals/managers.

However, like most computing devices, they have become Consumer - This means bloat and feature-checkboxes will begin to nudge out things like functionality and efficiency.
This is why WM has been overtaking PalmOS; On paper, PPC's have *always* looked *lightyears* ahead of PalmOS. This makes PPC's a lot easier to sell than Palms for the average idiot sales-dude at whatever computer store.

PalmOS's strength has *alwasy* been usability, something that IMHO neither PPC's not Linux will *ever* attain the same level of. However, as it has been said, Usability is a very hard thing to sell. PalmOS's best advertising has been word of mouth, which is why user-relations was a very important thing for Palm. At some point, they lost a large chunk of that and their users are now a lot less enthusiastic than they used to be.
I mean look at the whining - I never saw anyone whining this much about the old Palms. Even now, people will priase the III and Vx while slamming the Tungstens. Weird, but there you go...

If they can 'excite' the user in the same way they used to, and espescially the way Sony and Tapwave did (Ph33r their rabid fanboiz! :p), then maybe they can claw their way back...



Jeff: DUDE! Pleeeease Normalise the Podcast and flatten the dynamic range!! I couldn't hear a word you were saying so I turned it up, and when it ended and TCPMP looped it, my Zodiac blew me through the wall when R.E.M. kicked in!! :eek: :D
(Seriously, the Zod is UNBELIEVABLY FREAKING LOUD!!! :eek: )

Jeff Kirvin
07-08-2005, 12:37 AM
I don't think Michael Mace has left Palmsource. David Nagel, the CEO, has left but not COO Mr. Mace.
Nope, he's gone.

Jeff Kirvin
07-08-2005, 12:42 AM
As for Surur's rant, he may not think Longhorn will replace WM on tablet-style handhelds, leaving WM to just the phone market, but Bill Gates seems to think otherwise. A full version of Windows capable of running the full version of Office has always been the Microsoft mobility vision, and Surur's fanaticism won't alter that in the slightest. By 2008, WM will appear only in smartphones. Handheld computers will run Longhorn (or Linux) and they will be smaller and cheaper than modern laptops. Don't believe me? Check out the concept model Longhorn minitablet Gates showed off at WinHEC this year.

Might I add how sad it is that some people's devotion to Windows Mobile runs so deep that they're willing to fight Microsoft itself to preserve the platform from all threats, even Windows.

Surur
07-08-2005, 12:58 AM
Jeff, I believe it was a logical argument, not a rant. Its based on simple things like size, energy density of batteries and run-time. Its sad that you are so dismissive of the contents, as you seem to be basing your future mobile IT vision on this unproven longhorn tablet.

Jeff, address the argument, not the person.

Surur

GadgetGuru
07-08-2005, 12:59 AM
(Mr. Mace) Nope, he's gone.
Guess, he is one of the three vice-presidents that got axed by the reorganization mentioned in Palmsource's financial report last June 29th... Too bad, Mr. Mace is one of the few people who listen to ordinary users like us, and who sometimes monitor boards like these for inputs...

Jeff Kirvin
07-08-2005, 01:11 AM
Jeff, I believe it was a logical argument, not a rant. Its based on simple things like size, energy density of batteries and run-time. Its sad that you are so dismissive of the contents, as you seem to be basing your future mobile IT vision on this unproven longhorn tablet.

Jeff, address the argument, not the person.

Okay, your argument is wrong. I'm basing my future mobile IT vision on what Microsoft has said they will do. You can bet against Microsoft if you want, but I sure wouldn't. And I find the irony delightful that you're betting against Microsoft because you don't want to give up your investment in... Microsoft. Once Longhorn tablets become a reasonable possibility, I can see Microsoft killing the Pocket PC in a heartbeat, refusing to license the PPC version of Windows Mobile in favor of the much fatter license fees for Longhorn. And if Microsoft decides to kill the Pocket PC as a platform, there's not a blessed thing you or Asus can do about it. Bill Gates has pledged Microsoft to a Longhorn-based version of mobility, and that's where they're going. If they decide to make pocketable tablets, then that's where they're going.

It doesn't take all that much intelligence to see the building blocks already being put in place. Remember the recent stories about new laptop hard drives with flash-based cache (which not only saves a bit of spin, but also makes true instant-on a reality for PCs)? Have you noticed the recent lifting of minimum size restrictions Microsoft had on the Tablet PC platform? Have you noticed that Sony can't keep the VAIO U series in stock?

HP, Dell and other heavyweights will be selling Longhorn based tablets the size of steno pads for under a grand by the end of 2007. No one will bother with the limited and compromise-laden Pocket PC when they can get a "real" computer for just a little more. For mobile computing outside the smartphone realm, Windows Mobile is just as doomed as Palm OS. Handhelds will run the same software as desktop computers soon enough.

So sayeth Bill.

Jeff Kirvin
07-08-2005, 01:13 AM
Guess, he is one of the three vice-presidents that got axed by the reorganization mentioned in Palmsource's financial report last June 29th... Too bad, Mr. Mace is one of the few people who listen to ordinary users like us, and who sometimes monitor boards like these for inputs...
Yeah, it's a real shame. Mike is a class act all the way.

But as you'll see in my Writing On Your Palm editorial on Monday Jul 11, PalmSource doesn't matter any more. Palm is back.

Surur
07-08-2005, 01:19 AM
Thats a reasonable argument, accept for leaving out the effect of competition. If Symbian and Linux continue to produce pocket sized devices and Microsoft continues to make backpack sized devices they will lose a market to another OS, which is the last thing they wish to do. As Ive said, I don't expect a MDA IV sized device to run Longhorn, do you?

There will always be a market for pocket-sized handheld devices, and I don't expect MS to abandon it to another OS. If there is one thing they have learned, its to cover ALL bases (handhelds, phones, games machines, DVD players, set top boxes, Auto PC's, servers, ATM's etc etc). Do you expect them to leave the WHOLE market for tablet shaped, PPC sized devices to Symbian?

Surur

Jeff Kirvin
07-08-2005, 01:25 AM
I don't expect a MDA sized device to run Longhorn until 2009 or so. But even then, the devices in 2007-08 will be about the same size as the Apple Newton. Not strictly pocketable, but much, much more portable than a full laptop. Between that and more powerful WM smartphones, I don't see the need for Pocket PCs and I get the impression from Microsoft that they don't either.

And show me a non-phone pocketable tablet today running Symbian. Hmmm... Didn't think so.

Surur
07-08-2005, 01:58 AM
http://www.brighthand.com/article/Details_Leaked_on_Rumored_Nokia_Handheld

http://www.nokia.com/BaseProject/Sites/NOKIA_MAIN_18022/CDA/Categories/Home/Nokia770/_Content/_Static_Files/770_features.jpg

Of course the Nokia 770 runs Linux, but its made by Nokia, and it shows that not every device needs a GSM chip. Let me re-iterate: Just because a device can make phone calls does not make it a phone. If the form factor is tablet shape, it includes a stylus, and its pocketable I would call it a pocketpc-like device. Don't forget the Symbian Nokia 7710.
http://www.nokia.com/press/photo/phones/jpeg/7710_04.jpg

http://ner.pl/im/nokia/7700_b.jpg

These are the Nokia 770 710 and 7700.

As I've said, don't be obsessed by the ability to take phone calls. You PC and laptop can take phone calls through Skype? Does this make them phones. In the end only the form factor is important.

Surur

Jeff Kirvin
07-08-2005, 02:09 AM
The latter Nokia devices are clearly smartphones as much as the Treo is a smartphone. And the 770 runs Linux, not Symbian. Linux is and will be Longhorn's greatest competitor in the mobile space.

My point stands. The Pocket PC is every bit as much a lame duck platform as Palm OS. In three or four years, everyone that uses handheld computing will be using either a smartphone or a Longhorn/Linux tablet. Those tablets may not be much bigger than the PDAs of today (from a 4in screen to a 6in screen, w00t), but they'll be running a desktop-class OS and be able to run the same software you run on a desktop.

The compromise of a "mobile" OS is nearly at an end.

PS. Long live the Treo.

Cyker
07-08-2005, 02:15 AM
I just can't see Longhorn running on small screen devices unless those small screen devices have ridiculously high-density screens like the ultra-small Vaios.

There have been several OS and GUI systems which were 'designed' to scale to different screen sizes and none of them have done so in a way that I consider satisfactory.

Lets look at Windows - Win98/2k runs good from 640x480 to 1024x768; As you get past that the interface becomes less optimal. Usable, but not comfortable.
WinXP OTOH, you NEED at least 1024x768; At anything lower it's usable but a real pain in the *** as a lot of stuff gets covered up.

In my experience, an interfaces is only any good when it's designed for a specific resolution range. I doubt anyone could scale something from 1600x1200 to 160x160/320x480.
If we're talking 640x480, then things are better but the pixels would be so unimaginably small that it would be *physically impossible* to tap on individual pixels unless the screen was made physically bigger.

Come to think of it, *every* PalmOS device I have ever used only digitises to a 160x160 grid (Or 160x240) grid. We can get away with this because lots of PalmOS' input co-ordinate systems still revolve around that old 160x160 grid and the HiRes is still primarily eye-candy, but was you upscale the screen resolution the inaccuracy gets worse and worse unless the interface stays the same physical size and only the detail changes (e.g. words are written clearer).

Mmm, that's a point 'tho... I will have to nab my friend's PPC to see what the digitiser density of that is...

Jeff Kirvin
07-08-2005, 02:18 AM
Cyker, that's the point of Avalon (Longhorn's display engine) and Aero (Longhorn's UI). They actually *will* scale up and down gracefully.

Surur
07-08-2005, 02:32 AM
Jeff, you have to wonder why Nokia did not use Symbian in their Nokia 770, despite owning 80% of it. Is it because its underpowered, has poor development tools, poor developer support, not enough geek cachet, no WIFI drivers or all of the above?

MS defines smartphones as smart phone devices with no touch screens. By that reasonable definition (as having no touch screen has other cascading implications) the 710 is not a smartphone.

Regarding Aero, if you had actually followed those links I gave earlier, you would see that to run Aero you need a pretty powerfull graphics card, which implies using a lot of battery power. Good luck getting 5 hours run time out of that.

While many had hoped to see Microsoft announce general hardware requirements for Longhorn this week, the company has only revised its general guidelines with regards to the graphical requirements of the OS. The company will be sticking with a tiered approach to the user experience, enabling and disabling some UI features based on the graphics power at hand in any given system and the preferences of the user. The tiers, announced already at last year's WinHEC, are as follows:

Aero Glass experience: Delivers the full-fidelity Longhorn user experience on the desktop, including support for 3D graphics and animation.
Aero experience: Delivers the minimum hardware acceleration and desktop composition for the Longhorn user experience.
Classic experience: Equivalent to Windows 2000 capabilities, using software rendering.

What wasn't announced last year was the price of admission. It's not too bad really, given that this is an OS targeted at 2006. The Classic Experience, of course, will work on most of today's hardware without a hitch. To get cozy with Aero, you'll need a graphics adapter with full DirectX 9 support, 32MB of RAM, 32-bit color, and AGP 4x support. If you want Aero Glass, you'll need the same card with 64MB of RAM, although Microsoft is already recommending 128MB or more. According to Microsoft's documents, you'll also need AGP 8x or PCI-Express, although sources report that Microsoft is also saying that AGP 4x support is likely. All Aero experiences will require drivers written for Longhorn. Just what will all of this get you? You can expect all the eye candy to make a showing: transparencies, dramatic window movements, 3D elements in the UI, and various tactics to shift visual focus by accentuating text, window positions, and the like. Vague, I know, but Microsoft is adamant that Aero be kept mostly under wraps for fear of their work being pilfered.
Surur

Jeff Kirvin
07-08-2005, 02:39 AM
By your definition, then, the Treo isn't a smartphone either, which clearly is NOT the case. And nowhere did I state that these tablets would run Longhorn to its maximum capacity. That's kind of what scale down means.

You're not even approaching a reasonable conversation. You just seem to want to argue. I'm done with you, Surur.

Surur
07-08-2005, 03:03 AM
Jeff, if being unreasonable means producing evidence, then thats clearly my problem, as I like producing evidence, not just supposition.

Don't you think scaling down the UI will require as much power as anything else? Or do you mean scaling down the functionality of the UI, so that scalable icons etc will not be available (which rather defeats the purpose, doesn't it.)

And no, the Treo 650 is a PDA phone. Ive heard many Palm users complain of Gartner classifying the Treo as a smartphone (like Palm wants them to) but its clearly just another PDA phone, like the XDA's.

Surur

jwm
07-08-2005, 04:48 AM
Jeff,

Another great Podcast. Very interesting analysis on the whole Palm(One) PalmSource situation. Palm Inc taking development of the Palm OS Garnet back in house may well be a good thing. The same group doing the HW and SW development may result in the product development lifecycle being quicker all round, with new, innovative products coming to market over the next year or two. My glass if half full. ;)

That said, if I recall correctly, it still took them a while between releases of the original “Palm” PDA’s: Palm Pilot through to the “m” series (and possibly erly Zire’s?). All seems so long ago now!

PS: I’m glad you didn’t get that job as well, for purely selfish reasons – you’d probably have to stop doing your Podcasts! :D

JAmerican
07-08-2005, 08:36 AM
I saw another person on the train with a Palm again. I did a Bluetooth search and my UX came up with Steven Harris, Pocket_PC, Blackberry 7250. Looks pretty even. These people don't know how to make themselves unnoticed. I wish I had BlueJack at the time so I could send them weird messages. LOL

Kirvin is gonna love this, the guy with the Palm had a T5.

JAmerican

smoothjordan
07-08-2005, 12:05 PM
I work at Circuit City so I see a lot of people with PDA's, the top 5 are : (In Order)
1. Treo 650
2. PPC 6600
3. X50V
4. Tungsten T|5
5. Zire 31

I was surprised at how many treo's I saw and the amount of PPC's I saw. I was also surprised by seeing very few Tungsten E's and E2's, which is what I sell most often. I figured that would be the most popular!!! For every ten customers I have come in, 1 has a pda, and I was surprised how many were women. Just goes to show you...

applejosh
07-08-2005, 02:02 PM
OK, finally got around to listening.

I know that I personally don't want a smartphone. At least with my current setup, if I lose one device, I still have the other. Losing the one integrated device would seriously ruin my day. That being said, I'm pretty disappointed with Palmsource's all-smartphone-all-the-time statement. Yes, we still have palmOne making PalmOS PDA's, but as stated numerous times, their communication skills with developers are less than adequate. Other things I've read is that their code is poorly commented/documented and difficult to dissect. This doesn't fill me with a lot of hope for the future. Maybe P1 can hire some of the laid off staff from Palmsource... And maybe PalmOne can buy the Garnet OS (and maybe Cobalt) outright since Palmsource seems hooked on smartphones and Linux. So much uncertainty in the Palm world these days...

PDASpecialists
07-08-2005, 03:58 PM
Don't believe me? Check out the concept model Longhorn minitablet Gates showed off at WinHEC this year.



What that block of wood he had? He showed off a block of wood. He could of shown them a functional (Not tablet) mini pc. Check out www.flipstartpc.com In case your wondering, I work with this device daily and yes it functions, and yes it is real. I really can not tell you anything other than what you see on the web site.

I know I am going to get asked when it will be released. All I can say is... "It will ship when it's ready".

If you think it is easy to cram a full computer in to a device of this size, you have no clue.

And in case you are wondering, this currently runs XP Pro, however it is being designed to run longhorn eventually.

Surur
07-08-2005, 04:10 PM
http://www.flipstartpc.com/images/00_hands.jpg

Its lovely, but not exactly pocketable, is it.

Microsoft® Windows® XP Home/Professional operating system
Dimensions: 5.8" x 4" x 1" (148mm x 101mm x 26mm)
Weighs 1lb (450g)
1 GHz processor
256MB system RAM
30GB internal hard drive
3D graphics w/ 8MB video RAM
Full-function, QWERTY thumb keyboard w/ hotkeys for commonly used commands
5.6" HDTV-quality display (1024 x 600)
Lithium-ion Polymer battery (2-6 hours battery life( with extended battery) )
Integrated 802.11b (11 Mbps) /g (54 Mbps) Wi-Fi
USB 2.0 port
Internal microphone/speaker with headphones and ear bud jacks
Integrated 1.3MP digital camera

So it has a 30GB HDD, and when used with minimum power they can get 2 hrs. Longhorn will demand better specs than that (at least 32MB video, 1.8Ghz processor, 512MB RAM). The flipstart has a long way to go still.

Surur

Cyker
07-08-2005, 04:48 PM
Cyker, that's the point of Avalon (Longhorn's display engine) and Aero (Longhorn's UI). They actually *will* scale up and down gracefully.

As I posted for the other projects where people attempted this, "I'll believe it when I see it" ;)

The closest anyone has come to doing it was with a vector-based display, but once people started actually making REAL interfaces (Instead of favourable demo-interfaces) it quickly came to light how impractical it was.

Interfaces, when scaled away from their native/optimum size, either have loads of wasted space or are unbelieveably cramped/truncate lots of stuff. I have never seen a scalable interface that does not have these problems.

But Avalon on a PDA... it will be interesting to see if they actually get so far past rock-bottom that they actually embed 3D accelerator chips in PDAs *just* to handle the GUI...

Surur
07-08-2005, 05:28 PM
These levels, or tiers, are currently called Aero and Aero Glass; last year, Microsoft simply referred to them as the Tier 1 and Tier 2 user experiences. The default Aero user experience is built on the low-level Longhorn graphics API called Avalon and will require a DirectX 9-compliant 3-D graphics processor with at least 32MB of RAM and an Intel AGP 4x bus. Aero will require a minimum resolution of 1024 x 768 (XGA), compared with 640 x 480 (VGA) for today's Windows versions. Last year, Microsoft announced DirectX 7 compliance as a baseline for Longhorn, but Hammil defended the change. "By 2006, DirectX 9 will be baseline functionality," she noted, adding that finding DirectX 7 cards in 2 years will be impossible, anyway. "Machines with graphics hardware that doesn't meet this Aero bar won't qualify for the [Designed for] Longhorn logo."

http://www.windowsitpro.com/Article/ArticleID/42580/42580.html?Ad=1

Thats 150 dpi minimum for a 5inch screen. I hope Jeff is wearing glasses already.

Surur

Jeff Kirvin
07-08-2005, 06:11 PM
It's called skins, people. Think it just might be possible to have a desktop UI and a handheld UI running on the same underlying system and toqgle betwern them as the situation merits?

Open your minds. There's more than one solution to everything.

thenikjones
07-08-2005, 06:36 PM
http://www.flipstartpc.com/images/00_hands.jpg

Its lovely, but not exactly pocketable, is it.

Surur

It looks smaller than the Psion 5, possibly the Psion 3, so of course it is pocketable. Not as small as my MDA Compact (aka JAM), but easily pocketable. What's your point?

Surur
07-08-2005, 06:46 PM
You must wear cargo pants. This device is not going to get any smaller, and its not going to fit into your suite jacket. It weights a pound, and its a poor PDA replacement, with only 2Hr battery life.

Thats the point. Jeff's dream of a longhorn mini-tablet for the masses is just that. A dream.

However if he wanted similar functionality, but was willing to give up the eye candy and app compatibility (which is overrated due to the size constraints) he could get much better performance (battery life, size, weight, run time) from a lightweight OS such as Windows Mobile.

Surur

PDASpecialists
07-08-2005, 08:39 PM
I can put it in my pant pocket. I wear docker style pants. The thing to remember about the FlipStart is it is NOT a PDA, it is a fully functional laptop PC. As for the specs I never said it would be shipping on the specs from the web site. :cool:

The Screen is VERY CRISP. I find it easy to read. I use it on my desk with a keyboard, mouse and external monitor. Then I undock it and take it with me. It really is a laptop replacement NOT a PDA replacement. There is only 1 thing that really keeps it from being a PDA. That instant on feature that our PDA's have. And yes that is a big thing.

There are some serious hurdles to be jumped to get a device of this size with the same specs of a high end laptop. (This is no where near being a high end laptop on specs).

Alan G
07-08-2005, 10:04 PM
Ok, I have to admit that I'm feeling a little bit depressed about all this death of the Palm OS stuff. And not just because I am trying to build a small part-time business around Palm OS devices.

Alright, as some of you already know, I work in the IT field, so I've seen products come and go, but I really have a soft spot for the Palm. It was the only product that I "fell in love with" from the very first time I planned with a co-workers Palm III. So, here's what's really bugging me I guess. Ok, PalmSource goes all linux with Palm OS Linux and concentrates on feature and smartphones. Ok. I'm good with that. Palm, Inc. assumes control of Garnet, the current operating system of choice for their devices. Now the questions. Do we think (it's still too soon to know for sure) that Palm OS Linux will remain Palm OS for Linux and continue to use the familiar Palm OS look and feel? Will Palm OS Linux still have the Cobalt UI grafted on top? I'd assume that if I'm a licensee, I can still modify the OS so as to adapt it to work on new hardware designes. Now, on to Palm. Any business has as its goal to make money. I'm going to assume that Palm will want to stay in business beyond the 2007 Microsoft mini-tablet event horizon. So, the continue to enhance Garnet to work on 2 or 3 more Tungstens, LifeDrives, and Treos. What happens when Palm OS Linux actually ships? Does Palm keep making handhelds and smartphones with the new OS? Do they become a cell phone hardware company? I don't know. Or do I? If we assume that Palm wants to say in business, I have have to assume that they do, could we be looking at a "grown up" LifeDrive-like device for 2007 - 2008? Think about it. If the LifeDrive was scaled up to the size of a mini-table, ran linux and had a 40GB drive, wouldn't that be a lot like the Microsoft mini-tablet? We keep referring back to the Apple Newton Message Pad. I have a Message Pad 2000 sitting on my desk. If the NMP 2000 had a color display and a hard disk, that starts to sound a lot like my "grown up" LifeDrive. So, maybe, in the end, I can still buy Palm devices (handhelds may not be the correct term anymore), running the familiar Palm OS UI, and be able to work with office documents with applications like OpenOffice. Hmmm...Ok, I think I'm feeling better now. (And I think I have the main topic for my next Tech Talk podcast!)

Alan G

Puppy
07-09-2005, 01:25 AM
I LOVE these Podcasts Jeff! Really look forward to them now.

Regarding the Palm OS thing...where is Palm going to get a modern OS from now? OS 5 just needs to die. OS 6 is apperently already dead. OS 6 for Linux isn't ready, and apperently isn't designed for PDAs even if it was.

So what is Palm going to do? Start from scratch on a new OS?

And what worries me too is that PalmSource seemed to have much better software people than Palm (PalmOne).

Will PalmSource and Palm end up making competing, divergent Palm OSs?

I can't believe we have no idea what the future holds for Palm. Whatever they do, they'd better include real Graffiti on future devices :D

Vampire Lestat
07-09-2005, 02:17 AM
Consumers are better off when there is competition to Microsoft. Netscape turned to the open source community to resist Microsoft; they failed. However, FireFox is winning and that is based on Mozilla, which is the same engine as the open source based Netscape. Apple was also able to survive with help from the open source world. So surviving against Microsoft is possible.

Palm OS on a Linux kernel will be sold to unsuspecting consumers who won't even know Linux is there. However, developers and hardware manufacturers (Palm Inc., LG, etc) will see more drivers available more quickly, thus reducing time-to-market and manufacturing costs. They won't have to hire people to write new chip drivers every time they make a new device.

I currently own a T5 and an HP hx2750. Both devices have their strengths and weaknesses. Both answer my needs and both are great products.

Palm OS will survive just fine thanks to the help of the phone market. You will continue to see Palm OS based handhelds as well, just not as many as you see now. The market is forcing that reality, not Palm Inc. Palm makes what people buy, and phones is where the money is at now.

Finally, a special note to Jeff Kirvin. You are wrong in your vision that mini-tablets with Longhorn will replace PDAs. Once you make a product even just 1 CM larger than today's PDA, you are falling into a new market. You might see a new emerging mini-tablet "Jeff Kirvin market", but the PDA and smartphone markets will continue as they are now, pretty much forever. I personnally feel that Longhorn will simply be ported to PDAs and will be just fine on a VGA screen.

Palm Inc. has a well known brand name, they are profitable, they have a very strong lineup of handhelds and smartphones covering all price points, they use a simple & pleasant Palm OS and they plan on increasing profits by turning to Palm Linux. They have plenty of sales channels. The company is in better shape for the long term than we think.

I expect Palm Inc to soon offer both a Pinux and WM version of their Treos. It only makes sense they try to milk the Treo cow as much as possible. Palm OS based handhelds and phones will continue to be appealing to consumers because of their speed and simplicity, and be appealing to Palm Inc because of the low license costs compared to Windows Mobile; remember that Pinux using open source components reduces costs.

The world has so many people now that Palm OS will hold on to a market and survive just fine. You don't have to own 80% of a market to survive. You can have only 1% and survive as so long as you are profitable.

If you are Palm OS fan and love your Palm OS programs, don't worry, just keep on using it. LG did not license out to Palm OS for nothing. They probably got a very low cost license because PalmSource is desperate to send the message to other companies that Palm OS is cheap and good to make money.

Anyways, I could write all day on these topics, but that is enough for now. :)

BClie2k
07-09-2005, 02:41 AM
Jeff,

Ever since the first 1src podcast I've never missed one and I’ve almost always agreed with your comments, but this week's Podcast is just out of control. You seem to be giving too much credit to Longhorn and Microsoft. Have you actually seen Longhorn working on a PDA size or similar device? Then, I don't know why you are making a big deal about PalmSource not doing any more developing on Garnet. The most logical step for PalmSource is to fully concentrate on the new Linux based OS, so they can have it in production sooner. Palm OS 5 has gone a long way and I think it is time to for PalmSource to work on something else, don't you think? And let the hardware makers customize it as much as they want. Now, Cobalt, what's going on with Cobalt? I really don't know, but if we all know that the new Linux based OS is going to take 3 years or so to hit the market, don't you think it is pretty much obvious that we might be seeing Cobalt on the next Treo? Why is it taking Palm so long to come out with a Cobalt device? It is the same reason why Longhorn is taking so long to be released. I remember back in the 90's Microsoft used to release a new OS almost every other year, but we've learned from their stupidity and we prefer a stable OS rather than a nice new GUI OS with blue screens of death. So come on Jeff... chill, it's not the end of the world as we know it yet.

Al

vta
07-09-2005, 08:11 AM
These are a number of interesting ideas going on here. PalmSource becoming a SmartPhone only software developer? Mini Tablet PC's taking over from Palms and Pocket PC's? Palm Inc. Developing their own OS?

This is still a very immiture market in many ways, we (users as a whole) have still not come to a solid consensus on what works best (pda/phone, or a pda and a phone) maybe there will never be a set answear to that question.

Personaly I think Handhelds are getting TOO powerful for their own good. What I mean by this is that I think the focus on features is 'currently' outweighing the need (imho) for devices that simply deliver reliable information solutions convieniently when needed. i.e. 'smaller' devices that are simple to use (something Palm has a lead in). We are allowing features to push the devices to larger and larger sizes because the current focus is to sell on features.

The small tablet size PC's Jeff talked of sound great but I will be as bold as to say that they will probably be a flash in the pan and NOT the answear. I just dont think that the general market will be willing to change their clothing style (baggy pants) to be able to carry a device that size.

As much as I like a seperate pda to my phone, i feel the writing is on the wall and the Treo is the direction that Palm is heading (basically a swiss army knife) doing a 'pretty' good job of 'most' of what a user needs, but not a perfect job of any one need. This is where the $ is for them, and it also will tie into PalmSources direction, and i don't think the two companies are ready to give up what advantages they do have by keeping some partnership with. The market is too competative for them to totaly let go.

I am hopeful that come July 14th we will get some sort of statement from Palm that will give some hint of the direction they are heading. If only to entice shareholders to buy into the stock!

Adam

Gekko
07-09-2005, 03:31 PM
http://x3.putfile.com/7/18915252740.jpg

Vampire Lestat
07-09-2005, 05:09 PM
hahahahahahaha

jjesusfreak01
07-09-2005, 05:27 PM
http://x3.putfile.com/7/18915252740.jpg
Very interesting. I want that on my TombStone.

BClie2k
07-09-2005, 05:51 PM
This is a good example on how Blogs are not always as informative as they should be. Even worst, when people start creating affirmative arguments out of a Blog.

Al

Foo Fighter
07-09-2005, 06:30 PM
Interesting commentary, Jeff. Your assessment of tablet PDAs eventually morphing into scaled down thin client PCs is spot on. However I think that transition is a long way off, not just around the corner. Probably 5-10 years, and more so the latter. Hardware has to evolve much farther, battery technology has to improve, and so on. But we are coming to that point.

Until then we're basically stuck with dumbed down PDA operating systems. The big question is what PalmOne's strategy will be, going forward. Garnet is essentially dead, it's development has ceased. Which means PalmOne...err, Palm, is going to be left with three possible (unpleasant) choices...

1. Acquire PalmSource - I doubt this will happen considering what a colossal disaster this would be from a financial standpoint. Palm would go from a fiscally sound company to a cash burning monster overnight. And considering it took this long for PalmOne to get to the "healthy" state they're in now, I'm sure Colligan and his team don't want to slip backwards...again.

2. Acquire all rights to Garnet and or Cobalt - I'm betting that PalmOne got more than just its brand name back. They might very well have worked out an arrangement with PalmSource to acquire Garnet, Cobalt, or both. This would allow each company to pursue its own strategy, and allow Palm to develop PalmOS the way it wants, independently of palmsource. On the other hand, this too could bring serious financial hardship to Palm as it would then have to invest a great deal of capitol engineering...or rather REengineering the OS. And even if they did acquire Garnet, what would be the benefit? Garnet is a dead-end platform that should have been replaced with a more robust platform (Cobalt) long ago. Which was the ORIGINAL intent. PalmOS 5 (Garnet) was designed to be a transitional bridge between 68k code and ARM. Nothing more. It was never designed to be a long-term platfrom, just a speed bump along the road towards a "next generation" PalmOS which eventually became Cobalt. But I digress.

3. License Windows Mobile - Whatever happens with scenario 1 and 2, I'm fairly certain Palm will, at some point, license Windows Mobile to sit alongside its Palm-powered offerings. Especially if market conditions for PalmOS remain or worsen. Some studies show Windows Mobile outselling PalmOS, while more conservative estimates put it on par. The bottom line is that PalmOS is no longer a leader, just one of the gang and that could have major consequences for Palm. If MORE than half the market no longer wants PalmOS, Palm will have no choice but to offer what the other half is buying in order to stay competitive. If that doesn't happen, Palm is going to find itself fighting what potentially could be a losing battle of trying to convince buyers to "switch". We all know how well that strategy worked for Apple.

That said, I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. There's something we don't know yet, and I'm betting July 14 will see much more than just a name change and logo unveiling from PalmOne. Mark that day on your calendar...it's VERY important. ;)

BClie2k
07-16-2005, 05:54 PM
Jeff,

Do you remember me saying that the next Treo will have Cobalt? and why older Palms did not have Cobalt?
http://www.1src.com/forums/showpost.php?p=831585&postcount=59
Well, read this and tell me who is right now? Make sure you add this to your PodCast. :)

...the next Treo will have the same form factor as the Treo 650 but run on Palm OS Cobalt 6.1...

http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000027050757/


Al