Cobalt? T5? "T7"? What is likely?

[zenlon]

A lot of the usual questions are currently and understandably being posed, such as should I buy T5 or T3 or ..., but it seems that nobody is asking the other question: should I jump on the T5 now or wait for a potential T7 successor? I propose that this is not the usual "buy now or wait" question.

If you have to have a newer PDA now, then the question is irrelevant, but as a happy TT user hungrily eyeing the T5, I must pose this question. I know we're all still recovering from having our hopes for the T5 dashed on the palmstOne, so the inclination is not to jump back in the ring and hope for a T7 with Cobalt (and whatever else your heart desires).

So the question I pose at the top then becomes a list of questions:

Will the T7 be an incremental improvement on the T5 or a major leap forward from it? (You could argue that the T5 was a significant change in terms of the fundamental/underlying architecture even if it didn't immediately or obviously translate into a vastly different user experience. And with the separation of palmOne and palmSource, do major OS upgrades now always have to go coupled with major hardware advances?)

Will you be able to upgrade your T5 to Cobalt upon its release? (I know many have suggested Palm would not do this, but such a release wouldn't cannibalise T7 sales, because, aside from us, what percentage of the market would buy a T5 and then, six months later, buy a T7 just to get Cobalt functionality?)

Will there be a T7 or is the T5 the last, non-smartphone PDA from palmOne? (I hope this is an unlikely nightmare, but who knows? It's all about profit anyway.)

These questions must surely be near the front of one's mind if, like me, you are not quite a bleeding-edge, early adopter but also definitely not a laggard, only-needs-based potential PDA buyer/upgrader.

Besides, T7 is cool in Graffiti(1); how could they not do one?

Tough questions? Tough love.

[zenlon]

(More food for thought.)

P1 and PSrc must still both be involved in big Palm OS releases, but in a different way, with different motivations.

As I understand it, some of the logic behind splitting the two was that they could pursue strategic alternatives independently and fully focussed on their own strategic goals. For PalmSource, this is to maximise the success of Palm OS. For PalmOne, this is to maximise sales of its portfolio of hardware products. Do they still have to cooperate? Yes. Do they have to be fully coordinated with their plans, releases, etc.? Only when it is to their advantage.

Now, I thought I understood this separation meant that, roughly speaking, PSrc develops the OS up to a point and then leaves it to hardware companies (P1) to tailor it to their products. So once PSrc has produced an OS P1 feels it can use, presumably it is then out of the hands of PSrc and P1 can tailor it and release it with or without hardware to boost sales. So, as separate companies, they are no longer as incentivised to have coordinated releases of hardware and software.

In fact, you could possibly conclude that P1 could have released Cobalt already, but has been holding off until it felt the time was right, ie. until it would have the biggest impact on their strategic and financial success. This might also explain why Cobalt is taking so long to make it to devices, rather than it being solely technical difficulties.

Moreover, P1 is currently the monopoly supplier of Palm OS on hardware, so they have a great deal of leeway in when they choose to put it on that hardware. Alternatively, PSrc, as they sole supplier of the Palm OS to hardware OEMs, can bring P1 under pressure by selling PalmOS (Cobalt) to other hardware suppliers. As there are currently no known alternative hardware OEMs for Palm OS, PSrc's pressure can only go so far for the moment (as far as we know, that is).

Does this mean they will release Cobalt soon? Does this mean they will release Cobalt with a big new, post-T5 hardware release? Does it mean they will ever allow T5 to be upgraded to Cobalt? I propose that it depends on whether they feel it is to their overall advantage as a hardware company. What it doesn't mean is that they are guaranteed to squeeze their customer base for every penny in the short term if they feel they can earn more in the long term by pleasing the right customers at the right time in the right way.

So, what intelligent opinions are out there?

[treffmeister]

Yum... I like this food for thought.
This comes back to this idea of competition, other manafacturers, and the like. Why, for example, has PPC got so many more manafacturers? Do they know something we don't, or is it just the combination of "windows'like" feel and something comfortable, familiar? I know for sure that the PalmOS is superior to Winblows CanHardlyFitInAPocket"PC".
This leads to the point of competition. Sony was a magnificent input to the world of POS. They innovated so much! 320x480, 320x320, clamshell, camera, many additions to the OS itself, not to mention the wonderous devices they put out kept Palm constantly on its toes and PalmOS as a whole, up with the bleeding edge. If there was no Sony, we may still be stuck with Dragonball68k, 160x160, and the like! (not that this is a bad thing, however there are better POS devices out now.) Sony even leapfrogged the OS over PPC. Now Sony is gone, I fear this input will be undone.

[Antoine]

Will the T7 be an incremental improvement on the T5 or a major leap forward from it?

Will you be able to upgrade your T5 to Cobalt upon its release?

Will there be a T7 or is the T5 the last, non-smartphone PDA from palmOne?

Good questions, here is my crack at them:
1. T7 will be a bug fix plus new features over the T5 IMO. P1 shouldnt do many incremental increases in a row as by next spring there will be a need of something to spark the market and a Cobalt device featured up should do it just fine.

2. I'd say if they do offer and upgrade, it will not be until a few months after the first Cobalt devices are released. That would give P1 a chance to see any potential Cobalt errors and taiolr the upgrade to it.

3. No. You will see a good deal of non smartphone Zires and lower end Tungstens for a while yet. The thing is that you will see BT included on more models in both the Zire and Tungsten ranges. I am guessing for one new Treo by next release cycle as well.

Those are my thoughts at this point.